Post by Ghezzi_TCG on Jan 25, 2019 18:30:58 GMT -5
With true NM copies selling for close to or just over $600 prices for this card look stable but are now twice as high as they were prior to the ban list change. I am old enough to recall when these cards were playable in standard tournament and were out of reach for the majority of players. They fetched about $350+ per copy (a lot at the time, as most cards were under $30) if you could even find one. Most locals did not have access to these cards and those players that were lucky enough to own one or more were not really trying to get rid of them. Fast forward about ten years and these cards in NM/M were about $150 or $180 at the most. Having been banned for a very long time and with yugioh just coming out of the depths these cards started to rise from $120 (price circa 2008/2009). Recall that Morphing Jar has ALWAYS been the most expensive of the TP Ultras. In 2005 when GX was thriving and Luminous was $150 raw, Morphing Jar was still outpacing it. In 2012/2013 when Morphing Jar was 150/180 all other TP Ultras were 40/50 each. Mechanicalchaser, Magical Arm Shield, Royal Decree, and even Needle Worm were all between $40 and $50. Needle Worm was actually about $30 each NM, D.D. Warrior was about $25, and Toon Cannon Soldier was about the same. At the time I had picked up a TP2 Box for a measly $400.
Fast forward another forward another four years and I was selling that TP2 Box for $600 sealed or $30 a pack with a guaranteed holo and maybe the ultra. Never found out what happened to that box. (GOAT TRAIL) Worth noting that I have pulled just about every rarity card out there and opened just about every box including TP except TP2 and TP Ultra. Never opened or pulled either of those. (CONTINUING) I purchased another box a year later that was actually a TP3 box. Sad day but I was refunded partially for the trouble. I effectively paid $300 for the TP3 box. I fully opened it and was unhappy with my OC cards. By this time (2017) TP2 boxes were accepted as gone, with very few exception. Packs have popped up randomly here and there but are extremely rare and it stands to reason that this set is ACTUALLY a short printed set. Despite the constant claims people make about MFC and DCR being short printed, I can say with some degree of certainty that this set was not produced in great quantity and that most of the printed stock has likely been opened leaving a huge disparity between supply and demand. I have nothing but memory and empirical logic to defend myself.
Continuing (and assuming a continued stable [healthy] market) I present the problem. Morphing Jar between 2017 and now has not popped up in public sale very much in Gem Mint. Raw copies have presented themselves at $600 each for NM on ebay (insert fee argument), but the PSA copies don't come up very much. I had sold my PSA 9 to a friend for approximately $400 in 2016 and I suspect that a PSA 9 (or Mint raw card) would fetch about $900, with PSA 8 (what I consider "true NM") fetching about $650. With five PSA 8s, eleven PSA 9s, and sixteen PSA 10s this card isn't graded very much, however perhaps many of the would be graders either don't want to or don't have a version worth grading. Hard to know... So my question is what is a raw version that can grade 9/10 worth? $750? $900? $1200?
As a proud owner of a PSA 10 example (which was incredibly costly and a major purchase for me) I can tell you that I paid more than that for my Gem Mint copy. I paid between $1400 and $1600; it was part of a larger deal. This was in early 2018 when a NM copy could be bought $300/$400. Having seen this card jump this last year following the ban list change, and totally enjoying owning one I personally value the card over $2,500. I recall one selling mid 2018 for about $2,000 and I cannot recall another popping up in Gem Mint since that time. If you are a skeptic I would say conservatively a Gem example is worth about $2,200. I know where a solid 30% of these are and imagine that approximately 50% or more are permanently off the market as they are in collections. That means that approximately 5 or 6 could conceivably be bought or come up on public sales. Considering how expensive this card is in NM its conceivable that it could reach as high as $3,000 this year if the market continues to grow. Just my opinion. Share your thoughts.
Fast forward another forward another four years and I was selling that TP2 Box for $600 sealed or $30 a pack with a guaranteed holo and maybe the ultra. Never found out what happened to that box. (GOAT TRAIL) Worth noting that I have pulled just about every rarity card out there and opened just about every box including TP except TP2 and TP Ultra. Never opened or pulled either of those. (CONTINUING) I purchased another box a year later that was actually a TP3 box. Sad day but I was refunded partially for the trouble. I effectively paid $300 for the TP3 box. I fully opened it and was unhappy with my OC cards. By this time (2017) TP2 boxes were accepted as gone, with very few exception. Packs have popped up randomly here and there but are extremely rare and it stands to reason that this set is ACTUALLY a short printed set. Despite the constant claims people make about MFC and DCR being short printed, I can say with some degree of certainty that this set was not produced in great quantity and that most of the printed stock has likely been opened leaving a huge disparity between supply and demand. I have nothing but memory and empirical logic to defend myself.
Continuing (and assuming a continued stable [healthy] market) I present the problem. Morphing Jar between 2017 and now has not popped up in public sale very much in Gem Mint. Raw copies have presented themselves at $600 each for NM on ebay (insert fee argument), but the PSA copies don't come up very much. I had sold my PSA 9 to a friend for approximately $400 in 2016 and I suspect that a PSA 9 (or Mint raw card) would fetch about $900, with PSA 8 (what I consider "true NM") fetching about $650. With five PSA 8s, eleven PSA 9s, and sixteen PSA 10s this card isn't graded very much, however perhaps many of the would be graders either don't want to or don't have a version worth grading. Hard to know... So my question is what is a raw version that can grade 9/10 worth? $750? $900? $1200?
As a proud owner of a PSA 10 example (which was incredibly costly and a major purchase for me) I can tell you that I paid more than that for my Gem Mint copy. I paid between $1400 and $1600; it was part of a larger deal. This was in early 2018 when a NM copy could be bought $300/$400. Having seen this card jump this last year following the ban list change, and totally enjoying owning one I personally value the card over $2,500. I recall one selling mid 2018 for about $2,000 and I cannot recall another popping up in Gem Mint since that time. If you are a skeptic I would say conservatively a Gem example is worth about $2,200. I know where a solid 30% of these are and imagine that approximately 50% or more are permanently off the market as they are in collections. That means that approximately 5 or 6 could conceivably be bought or come up on public sales. Considering how expensive this card is in NM its conceivable that it could reach as high as $3,000 this year if the market continues to grow. Just my opinion. Share your thoughts.